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Surviving Drawdowns: The Math of Recovery
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Risk Management

Surviving Drawdowns: The Math of Recovery

Mahir - Lead Analyst 6 min read2024-03-15

Why losing 50% of your account requires a 100% gain just to break even, and how to avoid the death spiral.

The Asymmetry of Loss

If you have ₹1,00,000 and lose 50%, your account is at ₹50,000. To get back to ₹1,00,000, a 50% gain isn't enough (that only gets you to ₹75,000). You need a massive 100% gain just to break even. This mathematical asymmetry is why aggressive risk management is the only way to survive.

The Death Spiral

When a trader experiences a heavy drawdown (e.g., 30%), the psychological urge to "make it back quickly" dominates. They increase their position size dramatically on the next trade. If that trade loses, the account enters a death spiral from which recovery is mathematically improbable without depositing more capital.

The Drawdown Protocol

At THE CAPITAL GURU, if an Elite member hits a 10% drawdown on their total equity:

  1. They must immediately reduce their standard position size by 50%.
  2. They cannot scale back up until they have recovered the drawdown using the smaller, safer size.
  3. This forces them to focus on flawless execution rather than large PNL swings.

Protect the capital first. The profits will take care of themselves.

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